It is not yet possible to name but the next deadly pathogen causing the global pandemic is likely to be a respiratory illness, spread by a virus spread during the incubation period or when the symptoms are very lightweight, according to researchers at the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center.
Nhân viên cảng Hồng Kông đeo khẩu trang bảo vệ trước bệnh cúm heo trong đại dịch toàn cầu năm 2009
X can be transmitted through the air
They outlined a framework to help scientists and policymakers prepare for the deadly danger.
The "Characteristics of Pandemic Agent" report concludes that the perpetrator is unlikely to be one of the current disease and is causing scary outbursts such as Ebola, body fluids , or Zika, spread through mosquitoes.
Instead, disease X, as called by the World Health Organization, is probably a virus transmitted through the air.
More rigorous surveillance of human infections from respiratory viruses, especially those that are rapidly evolving to RNA viruses, retains the genetic material in RNA, rather than DNA.
The authors, headed by TS. Amesh Adalja, a senior-level scholar at the center, said that current studies to identify GCBRs are based on recent outbreaks, history and biological weapons agents.
However, this did not explain the possibility that the next global catastrophe might be due to a disease-causing pandemic.
There is a strong consensus that the RNA virus represents a higher pandemic threat than the DNA virus.
TS. "The readiness for health security needs to be adapted to new threats and not just to historical precedents," Adalja said.
"A more positive approach to this problem would help protect against GCBR events."
Epidemiologists and medical experts believe that this case is when, rather than, the world is attacked by a global pandemic of a dangerous infection, killing millions.
The next major disease outbreak could be triggered by a mutated strain of a known virus or by the leaking of a particular biological weapon and examples of Spanish pandemic flu. 1918, killing up to 100 million people, showing great danger.
The challenge for policymakers is to outline the appearance of such a pandemic.
But instead of assuming that future disasters will be like previous disasters, the authors returned to the drawings, studied the documents, and interviewed 120 experts to determine what characteristics would "identify "A microorganism is a potential threat.
Viruses emerge as top candidates because of their high mutation rates and the widespread lack of broad spectrum antiviral drugs - unlike bacteria, which are highly susceptible to antibiotics, or fungi, but few can infect the host.
RNA virus is a threat
Specifically, they identified RNA viruses as a threat because of their genetic mutation capabilities, allowing them to evolve quickly and one step ahead of the host's immune system and vaccines.
"There is a strong consensus that RNA viruses represent a higher pandemic threat than DNA viruses," the authors write.
The mode of transmission of such a disease is likely to be a respiratory tract, a pathway that is more difficult to block than, for example, the bloodstream.
This agent is also highly susceptible to infection during the incubation period, before the symptoms appear or when the effects are mild and before medical help is needed.
In addition, lack of vaccines and sensitive populations, all will make the disease more difficult to support.
Các y tá chăm sóc cho bệnh nhân trong dịch cúm Tây Ban Nha năm 1918 ở Mỹ
Of particular concern are some types of RNA viruses, including the coronavirus. They are responsible for a significant proportion of the common cold. They are also the cause of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed more than 700 people around the world in the 2002 outbreak, and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which has nearly one death rate. The third since it was determined in 2012.
To combat this threat, further monitoring of the RNA virus is needed.
Vaccines against the respiratory virus RNA - including the common flu vaccine - need to be pursued with increased priority.
Dr. Adalja added: "We hope policy makers and physicians are interested in our recommendations in their work to strengthen the health of the health sector and consolidate the preparation work. response to disease ".
Where will the next pandemic come from?
Wide-spectrum antibiotics limit the bacterial pathogenicity. Although multidrug-resistant strains are threatening the foundations of modern medicine, they are less effective at infecting healthy people.
Although fungal diseases present a threat to survival in some species of frogs, worms or snakes, few strains are capable of infecting warm-blooded animals, thus limiting their potential risk.
Contagious proteins, such as the mad cow disease protein, can cause serious injury but spread only in special conditions - for example, through surgical instruments contaminated.
This is usually a single-celled parasite, including malaria. Although it is possible to destroy pathogenic vectors, such as mosquitoes, resistant strains of malaria are proving to be a growing threat.
The rapid multiplication rate means that the virus can evolve rapidly to avoid the host's immune system or transfer among species, placing them at high risk for pandemics.